Ivyiza vy'Itegeko + Ugutanga Ivyiza-Iterambere ry'Ibisabwa Rituma Habaho Iterambere Ritoyi mu Nganda ya PVC

Mu gihe kirekire, inganda z’Ubushinwa zikora PVC zishingiye ku bintu bikomeye vy’ishimikiro kugira ngo umuntu agire icizigiro ciza. Ica mbere, ugukomeza gushirwa mu ngiro kw'ingingo ngenderwako "anti-involution", harimwo n'ugushiraho ibiciro vy'amashanyarazi bitandukanye no gukuraho imisoro y'ibicuruzwa vyoherezwa hanze, bizokwihutisha gukuraho ubushobozi butagira akamaro. Ubwa kabiri, iterambere rishasha ry’ubushobozi bwa PVC kw’isi yose rizoguma ari ritoyi mu myaka iri imbere, bizotuma habaho iterambere buhoro buhoro mu bijanye n’ugutanga-ugusaba. Ica gatatu, ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’abandi kw’isi yose bw’ubuhinga bwa PVC bwo mu Bushinwa burabandanya gutera imbere, hakaba hariho umwanya munini wo kwagura amasoko yo gushora ibintu hanze.

Mu gihe hariho ugukomeza gukomera kw’ingingo ngenderwako zo mu gihugu zo kurwanya ubuhinduzi, kuva kw’igenekerezo rya 24 gushika ku rya 31 Mukakaro 2026, umugwi w’abashakashatsi wa Guo Tai Futures waragendeye Shaanxi, Ningxia na Inner Mongolia-uturere dutatu dukomeye dukora PVC-mu Bushinwa. Intumbero yari iyo gusuzuma ingaruka nyazo z’ingingo ngenderwako z’ingenzi nk’ugutandukanya ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi n’ugukuraho ibiciro vy’imisoro yoherezwa hanze ku nganda za PVC, no kugenzura ingene ubushobozi bugenda buragabanuka, uko amashirahamwe akora, n’ingene amashanyarazi ashobora gukoreshwa mu karere. ubushobozi bwa PVC bushingiye kuri carbide-, bugereranya 25,55% vy’ubushobozi bwose bwa PVC bw’Ubushinwa na 36% vy’ubushobozi bw’igihugu bushingiye kuri calcium-bushobozi bwa PVC. Zifise kandi amatoni miliyoni 22,89 y’ubushobozi bw’ivyuma vy’umuyagankuba, bikaba bifise 60,88% vy’ubushobozi bwose bw’ivyuma vy’umuyagankuba vy’Ubushinwa. Ikindi kandi, izo ntara ni uturere tw’igerageza two gushinga ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi bitandukanye, ivyo bikaba bituma urugero rw’ubushakashatsi ruserukira cane iyo nganda.

Ubu bushakashatsi bwari bwibanze ku ngingo zibiri zihambaye: gutandukanya ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi no gukuraho imisoro y’ugushora PVC hanze. Nk'ingingo z'ingenzi ziri mu rwego rw'ingingo ngenderwako "anti-involution", zompi zaragize ingaruka zikomeye ku miterere y'ibiciro, ku vyoherezwa hanze no ku bushobozi bw'inganda za PVC.

Ku bijanye n’ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi bitandukanye, Igisata c’Inganda n’Ikoranabuhanga ry’Itangazamakuru ry’Intara ya Shaanxi carasohoye umugambi w’inyandiko y’ibiganiro mu kwezi kwa kigarama 2025, gitegura gushirwa mu ngiro ku buryo butegekanijwe ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi bitandukanye guhera ku wa 1 Nyakanga, bikaba vyerekeye inganda indwi zikoresha inguvu nyinshi-harimwo n’iyitwa calcium carbi. Ubushobozi bwa PVC na calcium carbide bwo mu karere ka Shaanxi bufise 7,18% na 9% vy’umubare wose w’igihugu, kandi iyo politike izotuma igiciro co gukora calcium carbide kiduga. Igihe co gushirwa mu ngiro, igiciro co gukora PVC i Shaanxi citezwe ko kizoduga n’amayuan 70 kuri toni, kikaba ari gitoyi kuruta uko vyari vyitezwe. Inzego zishobora gukingira ingaruka biciye mu gusubirira amakara-umugabane w'amashanyarazi no kugura hanze ivyuma vy'agaciro gato -carbide calcium biva muri Mongoliya yo hagati, bikaba bituma habaho ingaruka zidakomeye ku bahinga bo mu karere ka PVC. ingero, ikaba yitezwe kuba igikoresho gihambaye co gutunganya inguvu-ibigo bikoresha cane no gutuma isoko-rigira inzitizi zijanye n’ibiciro vy’inganda.

Ku wa 9 Mukakaro, Minisitere y’Imari n’Ubuyobozi bw’Imisoro bwa Leta, vyasohoye itegeko ry’Itangazo ryerekeye uguhindura amategeko agenga ugusubiza inyuma umusoro woherezwa hanze ku bikoresho vy'amashanyarazi n'ibindi, irimwo mu buryo butomoye ivyuma vya PVC, PVC itagira ivyuma n'ivyuma vy'ivyuma mu rwego rwo guhindura.Iyo politike yatumye haba ikintu c'igihe gito-c'"ugushora ibintu hanze" mu gihugu. Ubu, benshi mu bacuruza PVC hanze baramaze -bagurisha amategeko gushika muri Ruhuhuma, aho amashirahamwe amwe amwe mbere agabanya ubudandaji bwo mu gihugu kugira ngo ashire umutima ku kugurisha hanze, ashigikire ingero z’umusaruro. Ivyo bifatanije n’igihe c’imvura muri Aziya y’amajepfo n’amajepfo, ivyoherezwa hanze bizokwinjira mu kiringo co guhindura inyuma ya Ndamukiza, n’ugugabanuka gushobora kubandanya gushika muri Nyakanga. Ariko rero, mu gihe kirekire, kubera ko Ubushinwa bufise inyungu nyinshi mu bijanye n’igiciro n’ubushobozi, iyo politike izotuma haba ukwaguka kw’ibicuruzwa vyoherezwa hanze n’uguhindura ibicuruzwa. Hagati aho, ingaruka ku bahinga bo mu gihugu bakora PVC bakoresheje éthylène-ni nke, mu gihe amashirahamwe akoresha amahera menshi yo muri Henan, Shandong n’utundi turere yoshobora guhura n’ingorane zo gukuraho ubushobozi.

Ku bijanye n’ibikorwa vy’amashirahamwe, amashirahamwe ya PVC yo muri Shaanxi, Ningxia na Inner Mongolia muri rusangi aguma afise amahera meza ata n’aho atakaje. Mu mpera z’ukwezi kwa kigarama 2025 niho gusa amashirahamwe amwe amwe yatakaje amahera mu gihe gito kubera ukugabanuka cane kw’ibiciro vya PVC na caustic soda. Muri ico kiringo, amasezerano y’ubudandaji ku bici- ro bito-PVC iri munsi y’amayuan 4.000/toni n’amasoda y’amazi ari munsi y’amayuan 2.000/toni-yari make, kandi amashirahamwe yarishuye mu gukomeza ibiciro no kugabanya amasinya ku mategeko.Mu kiringo c’ubushakashatsi, igiciro ca PVC-5. yuan/toni, kandi ibiciro vya soda y’umuriro vyagumye biri hagati ya 2.100–2.300 yuan/toni, ivyo bikaba vyatumye inyungu y’inganda isubira ku rugero rubereye.

Ku bijanye n’ugukuraho ubushobozi, iyo nganda yerekana itandukaniro rigaragara mu karere. Bishingiye ku nyungu ziri mu makara n’ubutunzi bw’amashanyarazi, akarere k’uburaruko bushira uburengero kacitse ishingiro ry’igihugu ry’ibiciro vyo gukora PVC. Ibigo vyose vyasuzumwe vyizeye ko aka karere katazoba ari ko ka mbere kubona ubushobozi bugabanuka.Abahinguzi ba PVC bakoresheje carbide ya calcium-i Henan, Shandong n’utundi turere, baremerewe n’ibiciro vyinshi, birashoboka cane ko boba mu rwego rwa mbere rw’ubushobozi buzokurwaho. ingorane nk’ubutunzi budahagije bw’umuntu ubwiwe, ugusenyuka kw’agaciro kanini n’ibiciro vy’itunga, n’ugukora cane kw’ububiko ku bicuruzwa vy’inyuma; bamwe na bo nyene barashikirwa n’ubushobozi bugoyagoya bwo kwohereza ibintu hanze. Mu buryo bunyuranye, amashirahamwe yigenga aguma akora neza kandi akabona neza isoko, ashigikiwe n’ugushiramwo uruhererekane rw’inganda rwuzuye, inyungu z’ibiciro vy’amahinguriro y’amashanyarazi yigenga, n’ingene ingamba zo gushinga ibiciro n’ugucuruza zihinduka.

Ibigo umunani vya PVC vyavuzwe muri iri suzuma birimwo ivya Leta, ivy’abikorera ku giti cabo n’ivya Leta (CSOEs), hakaba hariho itandukaniro rikomeye mu mikorere hagati yavyo. Ibigo vyigenga muri rusangi birafise icizigiro ku bijanye n’isoko ryo muri kazoza kubera ukugenzura ibiciro n’ibikorwa bishobora guhinduka. Naho imirongo imwe imwe y’ibicuruzwa vy’amashirahamwe y’ubudandaji iriko iragenda mu gihombo, iguma ikora neza ifise inyungu mu bijanye n’imiterere y’ibicuruzwa n’ugusohoka kw’amahera, ifise inyifato y’ukwiyubara ku bijanye n’isoko.

Hashizwe hamwe ingaruka z'ingingo mfatirwako, ibikorwa vy'amashirahamwe n'imimerere y'isoko ryo ku -isoko, isoko rya PVC ryitezwe kwerekana "imbere y'Imisi mikuru y'Impeshi, hasi inyuma y'Imisi Mikuru" mu gihe gito. Mu gihe kirekire, izobona iterambere ritoyi rishigikiwe n’ibintu bibiri bitera intege politike n’iterambere ry’ugutanga-ugusaba.

Isoko rya PVC ryabonye "isoko ritoyi ry'impeshi" imbere y'Imisi Mikuru y'Impeshi, ryatumwe n'ibintu bine nyamukuru: Ica mbere, ugutera imbere kw'ibiciro vya calcium carbide vyatumye habaho infashanyo y'ibiciro. Ivyo vyavuyemwo imbere y’Imisi mikuru y’Impeshi vyari hafi kugurishwa vyose, ivyo bikaba vyatumye amashirahamwe agira ikibanza gikomeye mu biganiro vy’ibiciro. Ica gatatu, "ugushora ibintu hanze vyihuta" imbere y’ugukuraho imisoro yo gushora ibintu hanze vyabandanije gushigikira ibiciro.Ica kane, ibiciro bito vya soda y’umuriro vyaragiriye akamaro uruhande rw’igiciro c’uguhingura PVC.

Ariko rero, inyuma y’Imisi mikuru y’Impeshi, isoko rizohura n’ingorane nyinshi. Ku ruhande rumwe, ivyoherezwa hanze bizogabanuka hakurikijwe iherezo ry'idirisha ry'"ugushora ibintu vyihuta". Ku rundi ruhande, ivyizigiro vy’ugukuraho ububiko bwo mu gihugu no kugoyagoya kw’ivyo abantu basaba mu gihugu, hamwe n’ugukuraho imisoro y’ibicuruzwa vyoherezwa hanze, bizotera ingorane ibiciro.

Mu gihe kirekire, inganda y'Ubushinwa ya PVC iragumya ivy'ishimikiro vyiza bikomeye.Ica mbere, gukomeza gushirwa mu ngiro kw'ingingo ngenderwako "anti-involution", harimwo n'ugutandukanya ibiciro vy'amashanyarazi no gukuraho ibiciro vy'imisoro y'ivyoherezwa hanze, bizokwihutisha gukuraho ubushobozi butagira akamaro, gutuma ubushobozi bw'inganda butera imbere cane, no gutuma ubushobozi bw'inganda butera imbere cane. mu mwaka w’2026, ubushobozi bwo gukuraho PVC mu Bushinwa buzoshika kuri toni 895.000, mu gihe ubushobozi bushasha bwo kw’isi yose buzoba ari toni 705.000 gusa, ivyo bikaba ari intango y’ugucika intege kw’ibikoresho. Ukwaguka kw’ubushobozi bwa PVC kw’isi yose no kwihutisha gukuraho ubushobozi butagira akamaro mu myaka iri imbere bizotuma habaho iterambere buhoro buhoro mu bijanye n’ugutanga-ugusaba.Ica gatatu, inganda za PVC zo mu Bushinwa zirafise inyungu zigaragara z’igiciro n’ubushobozi. Mu gihe ubushobozi bwo mu mahanga buke, ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’abandi kw’isi yose bw’inganda z’Ubushinwa zikora PVC burabandanya gukomera, bikaba bitanga ubushobozi bwinshi bwo kubirungika hanze.

Muri rusangi, ugutera imbere kw’ugutanga-ugusaba n’ugutera imbere kw’ingingo ngenderwako "anti-involution" bitanga infashanyo zibiri ku nganda ya PVC, bikemeza umurongo mwiza wayo w’igihe kirekire-.